Confidence + action = luck
It’s hard to make things and put them into the world, whether it’s something small like a blog or big like a book.
When I’m trying to make something, I’m always fighting negative thoughts.
No one will like it
It’s not good enough
Someone else does it better
But you can’t predict how the world will react to your work.
Sometimes people love something that you made quickly with little effort. Sometimes they hate something that you poured your heart into for a year.
This hit me when I read Seth Godin’s blog Luck on demand last week. In it, Seth says ‘luck over time is inevitable […] it rarely happens when you need it most, it almost never happens in equal proportion to what feels fair (to you or to others), but it happens.’
Sounds good, but is it actually true? I decided to revisit some things I’ve made over the years to see if Seth’s theory holds up.
Luck
I recorded my 2007 album Fan the Flames in a couple of weeks on a shoestring budget at my friend Dan’s house. My singing is terrible. I can’t stand to listen to the record now. But that record had a lot of luck. It got me live sessions on Radio 1 and Xfm, tours in China, Europe and Russia, and some positive press.
In contrast, I spent three weeks and $16,000 making my 2015 album V. I had ten years of music-making experience behind me. I worked with an incredible producer and created a record that I love. Luck, however, didn’t appear. I had no interest from the industry and a handful of tepid reviews.
The record that ‘deserved’ the attention – the luck – didn’t get it. The one that didn’t, did. I might have preferred it to be the other way around, but I can’t deny that I got a little luck.
Action
To get the benefits of luck, you have to take action. Without action, you’re never going to see luck. And you’ll never enjoy the weird, unlikely things that happen when you put something into the world.
While touring Europe off the back of Fan the Flames, I fell in love with Berlin and dreamt of moving there. Four years later, I did exactly that when the perfect job landed in my lap. It definitely wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t taken action and made that record.
Your actions can create ripples that last a lifetime. Just this week, someone bought my 2006 album Garde Ta Foy, Garde Ta Foy on CD. I emailed him to warn them that there’d be a delay in sending it as all the CDs are packed away in a dark corner of my parents’ garage.
He replied to say that he’d first listened to my music 14 years ago with a friend in Germany. Recently, he thought about it again and spent ages trying to remember my name. Eventually, he found me and wanted to hear those old songs again. 14 years later.
Confidence
To take action – and make way for luck – you need to have confidence. Which is easier said than done.
I’ve been reading The Artist’s Way this year. It’s full of advice about creativity and putting things out in the world. It’s also rammed with great quotes, like this one from Seneca: ‘It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare; it is because we do not dare that they are difficult.’
While it’s always hard to get started, doing the work is often easier than we expect. It’s our fear that holds us back.
Even if we can’t be confident in our ability to make something great, perhaps we can learn to be confident in what our action can bring about – that mysterious thing we call ‘luck’.
As Charles Pépin puts it in his book Self-Confidence: A Philosophy:
‘Don’t have confidence in yourself, then. Instead, have confidence in what your actions are capable of bringing about; in the point of contact they offer you with the world and with others. Have confidence in what depends on you, and confidence also in what doesn’t. Have confidence in the reality that is already being transformed by your actions. Have confidence in the luck that your actions can stir up. Have confidence in the men and women who you will meet and who will maybe give you ideas, hope, strength, and – why not? – love.’